Six ways of selecting forecasting methods are described:
Convinience, "what`s easy," is inexpensive but risky.
Market popularity, "what others do," sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related because it overlooks some methods.
Structured Judgement, "what experts advice," which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising.
Statistical criteria, "what should work," are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly.
Relative track records, "what has worked in this situation," are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies.
Guidelines from prior research, "what works in this kind of situation," relies on published research and offers low-cost, effective approach to selection.
Armstrong, J. (2001): “Selecting forecasting methods” in Armstrong, J. (2001): „Principles of Forecasting- A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners“, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, S. 365)
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